I know it's still 3 weeks' until the New Year, but I wanted to get a jump on all the other predictions that are inevitably coming. So, without the aid of the next fortnight-and-a-half's knowledge, and with a lighthearted attitude, I give you:
15 Big Predictions for Second Life in 2007!!!!1
1. Second Life will surpass World of Warcraft for total users. At least, on paper.
2. Terra Nova will double their SL / WoW post ratio, bringing it up to 1:5. *grin* Additionally, there *still* will not be a legal court case involving virtual land ownership rights, further bolstering Terra Novans' casual indifference to Second Life.
3. Someone in the mainstream media, at least state-level, will quote the SL Herald in a story, and not realizing the Herald's self-proclaimed tabloid status, write something totally bogus.
4. Linden Lab will open up servers in other continents to reduce load, and *not* license their software until 2008.
5. Havok 2. ................ NOT!
6. Metaverse Development Companies explode in numbers, with lots of them lacking the talent to do it properly. Widespread outsourcing and subcontracting will occur. If we're *lucky*, we'll get compatibility with other 3-D formats and be able to hire people trained in Maya, 3DStudio, Bryce, etc.
7. At least one major MDC will fold or leave SL for unrelated projects.
8. Avatar will become the big tech buzzword of 2007, thanks in part to WoW's established popularity, Second Life's growing popularity with businesses, and the Nintendo Wii's "Mii" system.
9. Improvements in search features in SL will lead to a widespread price plummet of non-scripted items due to massive competition from all the new users. Residents will begin to realize that CopyBot isn't at all a threat to their sales, but each other. The successful brands will either have brand name recognition and/or complex scripted functionality.
10. At least one major attempt to compete with SL will arise. At best, it will be playing a game of 4-year catch-up with Second Life's feature set.
11. IMVU and Skype will both be bought by another company, most likely Google or AOL or Yahoo to be integrated with their messenger services.
12. A Second Life business (not necessarily an MDC) will be purchased by a major corporation.
13. A Second Life business (also not necessarily an MDC) will have an IPO on a legit stock market, not necessarily American.
14. Ed Castronova will speak before Congress about taxation in virtual worlds.
15. Neal Stephenson will finally utter the words "Second Life" publicly. Philip Rosedale and thousands of other fan-boys (your truly, included) will swoon.
Points of Science: A Quest into the Amazon
1 week ago

6 comments:
life just good
"Metaverse Development Companies explode in numbers, with lots of them lacking the talent to do it properly. Widespread outsourcing and subcontracting will occur. If we're *lucky*, we'll get compatibility with other 3-D formats and be able to hire people trained in Maya, 3DStudio, Bryce, etc."
Curiously, regarding similar names and similarly related subjects:
Multiverse.
Clearly not the same thing as SL in general, but looking at SL from a development platform perspective, this is hawt. I just found out about it today, and have yet to play with it myself.
Multiverse's goal is to be a small-shop MMOG platform, not a Metaverse platform. If they decide they want to shift gears and do Metaverse, there's going to be a lot of catching up to do with Second Life.
I'm excited to see what some small-shop developers do with this; certainly Ed Castronova's Shakespeare project is intriguing. However, the Multiverse executives have yet to even set the goal of widespread metaversing, so I'm not holding my breath. MMOGs will continue to be dominated by the Hollywood-style big-shop publishers for one reason: There's never a silver bullet for making games, which Multiverse tries to provide - at least for the underlying architecture.
**11. IMVU and Skype will both be bought by another company, most likely Google or AOL or Yahoo to be integrated with their messenger services.**
ummm... didn't eBay already buy Skype? :)
Aenea - aahahah yes, I suppose they did. I can honestly say I don't remember that happening, and Skype's branding is very eBay free. So, in that sense, I guess I was right. Sorta? :)
10. At least one major attempt to compete with SL will arise. At best, it will be playing a game of 4-year catch-up with Second Life's feature set.
Hmm, I find it also likely that Linden Lab will create a "licensing" system to allow another independent company to develop a "SL clone" under their own grid. But perhaps not (yet) in 2007, specially if the plans for open sourcing the client are solid and not just something nice they like to repeat to keep us interested :)
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