This year's predictions are being formulated. If you are media interested in paying me to publish it on your blog / news site, please contact me before the 24th! ;)
...
Okay, it's been 1 year since I made 2007's predictions, let's see how I fared!
Last year's predictions:
1. Second Life will surpass World of Warcraft for total users. At least, on paper.
Ding! Correct!
2. Terra Nova will double their SL / WoW post ratio, bringing it up to 1:5. *grin* Additionally, there *still* will not be a legal court case involving virtual land ownership rights, further bolstering Terra Novans' casual indifference to Second Life.
I am not going to run the numbers, but I've noticed a lot more SL postings, so I'm going to say I'm 2/2.
3. Someone in the mainstream media, at least state-level, will quote the SL Herald in a story, and not realizing the Herald's self-proclaimed tabloid status, write something totally bogus.
X wrong! Oh well.
4. Linden Lab will open up servers in other continents to reduce load, and *not* license their software until 2008.
Supposedly this is unofficially underway. Don't quote me, but I'm going to count this as correct. :)
5. Havok 2. ................ NOT!
Correct! And not Havok 4, either, as promised!
6. Metaverse Development Companies explode in numbers, with lots of them lacking the talent to do it properly. Widespread outsourcing and subcontracting will occur. If we're *lucky*, we'll get compatibility with other 3-D formats and be able to hire people trained in Maya, 3DStudio, Bryce, etc.
Ding! Correct!
7. At least one major MDC will fold or leave SL for unrelated projects.
Ding! At the last minute, e-sheep decides to lay off 22 employees and focus on their software suites. Essentially, they are no longer a MDC. Also, MoU and Anshe have both said their focus is on other virtual worlds, but they both seem to still do business in SL.
8. Avatar will become the big tech buzzword of 2007, thanks in part to WoW's established popularity, Second Life's growing popularity with businesses, and the Nintendo Wii's "Mii" system.
Incorrect! Look for this in 2008 with James Cameron's new film of the same name, but this year the word was "w00t". Which is old news for anyone who actually *says* w00t.
9. Improvements in search features in SL will lead to a widespread price plummet of non-scripted items due to massive competition from all the new users. Residents will begin to realize that CopyBot isn't at all a threat to their sales, but each other. The successful brands will either have brand name recognition and/or complex scripted functionality.
Ah, this was too early. And there was widespread outcry against e-sheep's search (which spidered the *entire* grid) which they've subsequently stopped developing. So, incorrect, this may not happen til 2009.
10. At least one major attempt to compete with SL will arise. At best, it will be playing a game of 4-year catch-up with Second Life's feature set.
Wow, I can't believe in the span of 1 year we've seen Kaneva, Metaplaces, HiPiHi, and others. Correct!
11. IMVU and Skype will both be bought by another company, most likely Google or AOL or Yahoo to be integrated with their messenger services.
IMVU: Negative. Skype: Kind of.
Ebay bought Skype in late 2005. (I would learn about that after my prediction was made, so uh, I was right but I was wrong.)
12. A Second Life business (not necessarily an MDC) will be purchased by a major corporation.
CBS bought e-sheep. Correct.
13. A Second Life business (also not necessarily an MDC) will have an IPO on a legit stock market, not necessarily American.
Incorrect! I'm still thinking too far ahead.
14. Ed Castronova will speak before Congress about taxation in virtual worlds.
Incorrect! The Feds clearly didn't care about expert opinions and went right to the source, as we saw gambling shut down by Linden Lab this past Spring after the FBI was investigating.
Also, Ed was too busy releasing Arden for Multiverse an add-on patch for Neverwinter. I guess the virtual world economist couldn't understand that MMORPGs cost tens of millions of dollars and years of production. Or maybe Multiverse oversold their platform? I'm still waiting to find out which was the case.
15. Neal Stephenson will finally utter the words "Second Life" publicly. Philip Rosedale and thousands of other fan-boys (your truly, included) will swoon.
He did, and he doesn't really think it's a big deal.
So the grand tally: 9 / 15, giving me a whopping 60%! Good enough to pass a college class, great for baseball, certainly better than a fortune teller!
12/19/2007
SL 2007 Predictions: Reviewed, 2008 Soon!
12/02/2007
Memorials for Dead Avatars
The other day I received an instant message from a friend who's not a Second Lifer, but is fairly tech savvy. Something like, "Hey man, nice quotes" with a link to a CNet article by Daniel Terdiman. The article speaks about an effort started by SL avatar Katt Kongo to commemorate a day for the popular SL clothing designer, Ginny Talamasca, whose real life avatar passed on recently. Katt, chief editor at Metaverse Messenger, was on to a good idea, and by emailing a bunch of the influential people in Second Life (I can't imagine how I got on that list!) she solicited help in molding the idea into something workable and special.
The list churned out some ideas, and the biggest being that it had to come from and supported by the community. To this ends, the day ought to commemorate any lost friend or colleague that people knew entirely in Second Life.
To this ends, there have been specific efforts in the past. American Cancer Society has spaces and ways to commemorate those living or passed with cancer. The libSL community made a memorial for one of its lost members earlier this year. I recently read an article about someone who had a graveyard where you can rent gravestones to put names and dedications on.
Linden Lab has responded via VP Robin Harper:
"... we think it's a wonderful idea to have an annual day of remembrance in Second Life, to honor everyone we may have lost through the year. We're happy to have that day be on April 17. In addition, we'd like to donate the two island region Big Easy/Biloxi for the purpose of holding any memorial type events. ..."
I will post when I have more information - like an email or group to join or whatnot, if you're interested.
What's funny about this whole thing was that I found out about the article through my friend, as I mentioned. It is getting more commonplace that conversations that were non-specifically "on the record" are winding up being quoted in published works. I suppose this blog is guilty of that, as well. I think Terdiman used good judgment on the quotes he used, and after logging in, he did try and contact me in world. I suppose it is just still a novel thing to me to be seen as influential, especially in an industry where so many of my colleagues are technical giants.
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